Jun 11, 2014
Property Price Gains In April Strongest At High End Of Market
Price Gap Between Buyers And Sellers Narrows As Market Liquidity Improves
Price Gap Between Buyers And Sellers Narrows As Market Liquidity Improves
CCRSI RELEASE – JUNE 2014
(With data through April 2014)
This month's CoStar Commercial Repeat Sale Indices (CCRSI) provides the market's first look at April 2014 commercial real estate pricing. Based on 1,148 repeat sales in April 2014 and more than 125,000 repeat sales since 1996, the CCRSI offers the broadest measure of commercial real estate repeat sales activity.
CCRSI National Results Highlights
- HIGH-END CRE PROPERTIES ENJOY BIGGEST PRICING GAINS IN APRIL: Bolstered by continued demand for large, core properties, the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index advanced by 2% in April 2014, while the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which is more heavily influenced by smaller, second-tier properties, declined by 0.8% for the same month. In particular, average sale prices for core multifamily and office properties in major markets have soared well above their 2006–07 average as investors continued to aggressively pursue those types of properties. This investment activity is reflected in the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which has recovered to within 2.2% of its prior peak level in September of 2007, while the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index sits 21.9% below its prior peak.
- GENERAL COMMERCIAL SEGMENT REMAINS ON UPWARD TRAJECTORY DESPITE RECENT PRICE VOLATILITY: The equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index’s General Commercial segment declined by 1% in April 2014. Despite the volatility in the monthly data, the overriding trend over the past 12 months for this segment has been outsized pricing gains as capital expanded into secondary markets. The 13.2% year-over-year increase in April 2014 was the largest such gain among the four major indices.
- INCREASED INVESTMENT ACTIVITY REFLECTS HEALTHY MARKET FOR TRANSACTIONS: Repeat sales transaction volume year-to-date through April 2014 increased 25% from the same period in 2013, and is approaching 2006 transactions levels.
- PRICE GAP BETWEEN BUYERS AND SELLERS CONTINUES TO NARROW: The delta between sale prices and asking prices closed by more than one percentage point in the 12-month period ended in April 2014. This gauge of liquidity varies by region and property type, however. In the West region, sellers are achieving over 90% of asking prices, while in the Midwest this ratio is 82%, the lowest of the four regions. Multifamily properties are driving much of this improvement in liquidity. In the core coastal markets of Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston and New York, for example, multifamily sale prices relative to asking prices are back to, or above, 2006-07 peak levels.
- OTHER LIQUIDITY MEASURES ALSO IMPROVE: The average time on market for for-sale properties fell 3% in the 12 months ending in April 2014, and the share of properties withdrawn from the market by discouraged sellers declined by more than two percentage points during the same period.
- DISTRESS SALES CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE: As market fundamentals and liquidity have improved, the distress percentage of total observed sale pair counts declined to just 10.6% through the first four months of 2014, down from 16.6% for the same timeframe in 2013 and down 32% from the bottom of the market in 2010.
About the CoStar Commercial Repeat-Sale Indices
The CoStar Commercial Repeat-Sale Indices (CCRSI) is the most comprehensive and accurate measure of commercial real estate prices in the United States. In addition to the national Composite Index (presented in both equal-weighted and value-weighted versions), national Investment Grade Index and national General Commercial Index, which we report monthly, we report quarterly on 30 sub-indices in the CoStar index family. The sub-indices include breakdowns by property sector (office, industrial, retail, multifamily, hospitality and land), by region of the country (Northeast, South, Midwest, West), by transaction size and quality (general commercial, investment grade), and by market size (composite index of the prime market areas in the country).
The CoStar indices are constructed using a repeat sales methodology, widely considered the most accurate measure of price changes for real estate. This methodology measures the movement in the prices of commercial properties by collecting data on actual transaction prices. When a property is sold more than one time, a sales pair is created. The prices from the first and second sales are then used to calculate price movement for the property. The aggregated price changes from all of the sales pairs are used to create a price index.
For more information about CCRSI Indices, including our legal notices and disclaimer, please visit http://www.costargroup.com/costar-news/ccrsi.
About CoStar Group, Inc.
CoStar Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: CSGP) is the leading provider of commercial real estate information, analytics and online marketplaces. Founded in 1987, CoStar conducts expansive, ongoing research to produce and maintain the largest and most comprehensive database of commercial real estate information. Our suite of online services enables clients to analyze, interpret and gain unmatched insight on commercial property values, market conditions and current availabilities. Through LoopNet, the Company operates the most heavily trafficked commercial real estate marketplace online with more than 8 million registered members. CoStar operates websites that have approximately 16 million unique monthly visitors in aggregate. Headquartered in Washington, DC, CoStar maintains offices throughout the U.S. and in Europe with a staff of over 2,300 worldwide, including the industry's largest professional research organization. For more information, visit http://www.costargroup.com.
This news release includes "forward-looking statements" including, without limitation, statements regarding CoStar's expectations, beliefs, intentions or strategies regarding the future. These statements are based upon current beliefs and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements. The following factors, among others, could cause or contribute to such differences: the risk that the trends represented or implied by the indices will not continue or produce the results suggested by such trends; and the risk that investor demand and commercial real estate pricing levels will not continue at the levels or with the trends indicated in this release. More information about potential factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those stated in CoStar's filings from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including in CoStar's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2013, and Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2014, each of which is filed with the SEC, including in the "Risk Factors" section of those filings, as well as the company's other filings with the SEC available at the SEC's website (www.sec.gov). All forward-looking statements are based on information available to CoStar on the date hereof, and CoStar assumes no obligation to update such statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.